With Donald Trump officially sworn in as President this week, the US legal market is already adapting to navigate the ripple effects of a shifting political and economic landscape, and law firm leaders are trying to predict what the next four years will look like for them.

 

From policy overhauls to regulatory changes, the new presidency promises to bring both challenges and opportunities for the legal profession. As recruiters working closely with leading law firms and corporate legal departments, we are already seeing indications of how areas of the legal market may evolve over the coming months and years.

 

A landscape of deregulation and opportunity

A hallmark of Trump’s past presidency was his commitment to deregulation, and his second term shows no signs of deviating from that trajectory. Sectors such as energy, finance and cryptocurrency are expected to benefit from a more relaxed regulatory framework – so demand for antitrust, white collar crime and ‘financial services regulation’ lawyers may not decrease, but strategic investments will be limited.

 

In contrast, broader economic factors including lower interest rates will also shape the legal market. Private equity, bolstered by record-high levels of “dry powder”, stands ready to drive a wave of dealmaking activity. This is expected to fuel demand for legal professionals specialising in M&A, fund formation and finance, as firms capitalise on investment opportunities.

 

Candidly, at the partner level (or at least experienced partners) deal volume does not necessarily increase firms’ desires to hire proven revenue generators, but their price points increase. Where we do expect to see a significant increase in hiring is both at the mid-level for associates and so-called ‘day 1 partner hires’, where firms which cannot hire proven entities have to look to bet on those with potential but no track record.

 

Energy

Rolling back green regulations limiting oil and gas drilling and revisiting the Inflation Reduction Act could reinvigorate traditional energy markets. That said, most of our clients expect renewables investments and partners focusing on those asset classes to remain strong, owing to the fact that these developments are either presided over by blue states or provide jobs in red states, and therefore are unlikely to be scrapped.

 

Similarly, the appointment of a pro-cryptocurrency chair at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suggests a more permissive stance on digital assets (in addition to the figure of Elon being ever-present on our screens).

 

Geographies

Many commentators and clients ask where appears to be the next ‘hotspot’ or ‘gold rush’, and while it’s tempting to suggest that any one state or city is the key to a firm’s success, the honest answer is that much of ‘Biglaw’ – and certainly the AmLaw 50 – see partner hiring as a ‘talent business’. This means that while Texas will remain a hotspot for energy and infrastructure talent, law firms looking to invest in energy will make hires in whatever market those difference makers exist (or would like to). In a similar vein, K&E and other firms will launch offices wherever true rainmakers would like to practice.

 

Global perspectives

While my international colleagues may not agree, for the time being most US firms seem to feel like spending a dollar in the US will always be the best use when it comes to lateral hiring, with London being a close second. That said, it will be interesting to see how a Trump-led government and consistent threats of sanctions, tariffs and immigration restrictions impact the Middle East. For the time being, though, the UAE and particularly Saudi Arabia is the expansion market our clients want to speak about the most.

 

By contrast, possible trade wars or tariffs targeting key economic regions, such as the European Union, have the potential to disrupt cross-border operations, dampen transactional demand, and create uncertainty for multinational businesses, and China remains a region where firms are exiting more than they hire.

 

A nuanced outlook for legal recruitment

In the short term, the new administration’s policies are likely to generate heightened demand for legal expertise, particularly in transactional work. Furthermore, law firms remain bullish across the board.

 

From a recruitment perspective, it is tempting to suggest that certain areas will see generational demand while others are cast aside. Candidly, though, law firms and their results would suggest that regardless of government changes the sector is as insulated as any against both political upheaval and even economic slowdowns.

 

For as long as legal advice is primarily delivered by people, Biglaw will remain a talent business and our clients and their peers will always target both renowned partners, and the ‘rockstar’ associates who will replace them in decades to come.

 

Periods of fluctuating demand are the markets in which some lawyers are able to position themselves in significantly better practices than previously, and law firms find it even more important to attract the talent they need to service their clients (and in turn keep their partnership happy).

Article contacts

James Newton

Director

New York
+1 646 785 6464